Green hydrogen although seen as the wonder fuel is most likely to supply less than 1% of the worlds energy needs by 2030

 Green hydrogen and derived electro-fuels are attractive replacements for fossil fuels in applications where direct electrification is infeasible. While this makes them crucial for climate neutrality, rapidly scaling up supply is critical and challenging. In a Recent paper published in Nature Energy a team of researchers from Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung show that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast as wind and solar power have done, green hydrogen supply will remain scarce in the short term and uncertain in the long term. Despite initial exponential growth, green hydrogen is likely to supply less than 1% of final energy until 2030 in the European Union and 2035 globally. By 2040, a breakthrough to higher shares is more likely, but large uncertainties prevail. Both short-term scarcity and long-term uncertainty impede investment in hydrogen end uses and infrastructure, reducing green hydrogen’s potential and jeopardizing climate targets. However, historic analogues suggest that emergency-like policy measures could foster substantially higher growth rates, expediting the breakthrough and increasing the likelihood of future hydrogen availability.


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