Near-1.5 °C: A Line We’re About to Cross

The UK Met Office has issued a stark forecast: 2026 is likely to be one of the hottest years ever recorded.

Their projections suggest global average temperatures could reach between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C above pre-industrial levels.

That upper figure matters — because 1.5 °C isn’t just a number.

📏 Why 1.5 °C Is So Important

The 1.5 °C threshold, set out in the Paris Agreement, was never a “safe” limit — just a line beyond which risks escalate rapidly:

• More frequent and intense heatwaves

• Increased flooding and drought

• Accelerating ice melt and sea-level rise

• Greater stress on food, water, and ecosystems

Crossing it temporarily doesn’t mean failure — but lingering above it does.

🌡️ What Makes This Forecast Different?

This isn’t just a long-term climate projection. The Met Office is factoring in:

• Underlying human-driven warming

• Natural climate variability

• A growing chance of warming spikes that push us over 1.5 °C in individual years

In other words, we’re entering an era where breaching 1.5 °C becomes normal rather than exceptional.

🇬🇧 What This Means for the UK

For the UK, this translates into:

• Hotter summers with heat-related health risks

• Wetter winters and flash flooding

• Pressure on infrastructure never designed for these extremes

• Growing inequality in who can cope — and who can’t

⏳ A Narrowing Window

The science is clear: every fraction of a degree matters.

1.6 °C is worse than 1.5 °C.
1.7 °C worse still.

The question is no longer if we touch 1.5 °C — but how quickly we act to stop it becoming the new normal.