2025: Another Heat Record Broken — So What’s in Store for 2026?

 


2025: Another Heat Record Broken — So What’s in Store for 2026?

2025 has officially taken its place in the climate history books.
According to the HadCRUT5 temperature series — compiled by the Met Office, University of East Anglia and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science — last year finished 1.41 ± 0.09 °C above the 1850–1900 global average.

That makes 2025 the third warmest year on record, following 2024 and 2023 — and the third consecutive calendar year above 1.4 °C.

This isn’t just a statistical quirk. It’s a pattern.

Why this three-year run matters

For years, we talked about 1.5 °C as a future threshold — something for later. But we are now repeatedly brushing up against it in real-world annual averages.

That matters because:

  • Extremes accelerate before averages do

  • Heatwaves, droughts and floods increase non-linearly

  • Ecosystems and agriculture struggle to adapt to rapid change

Records falling back-to-back are a sign the climate system is being pushed hard.

So… what does 2026 look like?

1. Another hot year is the baseline, not the worst case

Even without a strong El Niño, background warming from greenhouse gases means 2026 is very likely to rank among the top five warmest years ever recorded.

Cooler years now need active cooling influences — they no longer happen by default.

2. 1.5 °C isn’t a cliff edge — it’s a danger zone

Crossing 1.5 °C in a single year doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement has “failed”. But repeatedly approaching or exceeding it increases risks such as:

  • Crop stress and food price volatility

  • Water shortages (especially after dry winters)

  • Marine heatwaves and coral loss

  • Higher summer mortality during heatwaves

3. The UK: fewer “average” seasons

For the UK, expect greater variability, not just “warmer weather”:

  • Wetter winters and drought-risk summers

  • Heatwaves becoming longer rather than just hotter

  • Increased pressure on reservoirs, rivers and farming

  • Infrastructure stress: rails, roads, power grids

The old idea of a “typical British year” is fading fast.

The uncomfortable truth

We are no longer asking if records will be broken —
we are asking how often, and with what consequences.

2026 could be slightly cooler than 2025…
or it could quietly become the next record year.

Either way, the direction of travel is clear.

What can we do now?

  • Prepare, not just prevent: homes, water use, health planning

  • Adapt locally: insulation, shading, water efficiency

  • Cut emissions where it actually works: energy, transport, food

  • Stop treating climate change as future tense

Because climate change is no longer “coming”.
It’s already writing the weather forecast.

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