Plastic production has doubled in 20 years… and it’s gearing up to double again

If you ever needed proof that humans can commit to a long-term relationship, look no further than our devotion to plastic. We’ve doubled global plastic production over the last 20 years, and many projections suggest we’re on track to do it again.

That isn’t just “a bit more packaging”. That’s a full-speed industrial snowball: more extraction, more manufacturing, more waste, more microplastics, more emissions — and more cost pushed onto councils, communities, beaches, rivers, and ultimately… us.

Why is plastic still rising when we all “know better”?

Because plastic is cheap for the producer, not cheap for society.

• Packaging and convenience still dominate: “single-use” is basically the business model.

• Petrochemicals are a growth engine for fossil fuel companies as other oil uses face pressure; petrochemicals are widely highlighted as a major driver of future oil demand growth.

• Recycling has been oversold as the silver bullet. Even on optimistic pathways, recycling doesn’t magically catch everything (or even most things). The OECD projects global plastic waste rising sharply by 2060, with recycling improving but still leaving huge volumes to landfill/incineration and leakage.

• Policy has been patchy, and global negotiations have been politically fraught — including recent reports of treaty talks stalling over whether to cap production or focus mainly on waste management.

In other words: we’ve treated the symptoms (bins, sorting, beach cleans) while continuing to manufacture the disease at scale.

“But I recycle!” (Yes. And still…)

Recycling matters. But it has limits:

• A lot of plastic is hard to recycle well (mixed materials, films, dark colours, food contamination).

• Even where technically recyclable, it often isn’t economically attractive.

• Global systems leak — and leakage is projected to rise without stronger action. UNEP warns plastic leakage to the environment could grow significantly by 2040 if we don’t change course.

So recycling is necessary, but it’s not sufficient. It’s a seatbelt, not a braking system.

The UK angle: we’re nudging the system (but the nudge needs a shove)

The UK is doing some serious policy work — it’s just not always fast, simple, or joined-up.

• Plastic Packaging Tax (PPT): applies to plastic packaging with less than 30% recycled content. The rate is rising again to £228.82 per tonne from 1 April 2026.
  This is good: it pushes recycled content into the system (demand creates supply). But taxes alone don’t redesign packaging.

• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for packaging: the direction of travel is clear — shifting the cost burden from councils to producers, phased in from April 2025.
  This is the big lever: if producers pay the real end-of-life costs, they suddenly become very interested in reducing waste and making packaging easier to recycle.

• Deposit Return Scheme (DRS): across the UK, plans point to 1 October 2027 for drinks containers (with some differences between nations).
  DRS is one of the most reliable ways to hoover up bottles and cans at high return rates — but it’s still a way off.

Meanwhile, UK stats show packaging recycling is decent overall, but plastics remain the awkward child at the family gathering: harder to recycle, easier to overproduce, and far too happy to escape into the hedgerows.

So what actually works? A “less plastic” playbook

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: we don’t solve plastic pollution by becoming better bin-sorters. We solve it by using less plastic, and using better plastic where we genuinely need it.

1) Cut the easy stuff first (the “no-one will miss it” list)

• Single-use cutlery, plates, straws, balloon sticks

• Excess shrink-wrap and “box inside a box inside a box” delivery packaging

• Pointless mini bottles (travel sizes) and sachets (the recycling black hole)

2) Push reuse where it’s practical

• Refill stations (cleaners, soaps, some dry goods)

• Returnable takeaway containers and cup deposit schemes

• Durable food storage replacing cling film and single-use bags

3) Make recycling count

• Choose packaging formats that are actually widely recycled locally (often clear PET, HDPE where available)

• Avoid mixed-material packs when there’s a single-material alternative

• Buy products using high recycled content — this is what PPT is trying to drive

4) Support system change (the bit that scales)

• Back stronger EPR and product standards (so producers design out waste)

• Support DRS implementation (and don’t let it be delayed into the next ice age)

• Look for brands aligned with credible initiatives (e.g., packaging redesign targets)

The awkward question: is “doubling again” inevitable?

No — but it’s the default outcome if we keep treating plastic as a convenience problem rather than an industrial production problem.

That’s why the most important fight isn’t how we recycle plastic. It’s how much we make in the first place, and whether policy focuses upstream (production caps, design rules, toxic additives) rather than downstream (clean-up and wishful thinking).

Because if plastic production doubles again, we won’t need bigger bins.

We’ll need bigger oceans.
(And we’re fresh out of those.)