The EU Warns: Prepare for 3°C of Global Heating


 The EU Warns: Prepare for 3°C of Global Heating

The EU’s independent scientific advisory body, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, has urged European governments to prepare for the possibility of 3°C of global warming.

That’s not a target.
It’s a warning.

Despite the goals of the European Union and the global commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2°C — ideally 1.5°C — current global policies put us on a trajectory closer to 2.5–3°C by the end of the century.

The advisory message is clear:

Hope for the best.
Plan for the worst.

What Does 3°C Actually Mean?

Three degrees may not sound dramatic. After all, the UK can swing 10°C in a single day.

But 3°C is a global average. That means:

  • 🔥 Far more frequent and intense heatwaves

  • 🌊 Accelerating sea-level rise

  • 🌾 Crop failures and food price shocks

  • 💧 Water shortages and drought stress

  • 🌲 Forest dieback and biodiversity loss

  • 🏥 Severe public health pressures

For context:

  • The difference between now and the last Ice Age was about 5°C.

  • We are already around 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.

Another 1.5°C on top of today’s temperatures changes the baseline of everything.

Why Is the EU Saying This Now?

The advisory board is effectively telling governments:

  • Emissions cuts are still essential.

  • But adaptation must now accelerate dramatically.

  • Infrastructure, food systems, water management, health services and energy systems must be stress-tested against 3°C scenarios.

In other words:

Net zero plans are not enough. We must climate-proof society.

What Does This Mean for the UK?

Although the UK is no longer in the EU, climate physics doesn’t recognise Brexit.

For Britain, 3°C could mean:

  • Hotter, drier summers (like 2022 — but more often)

  • Wetter, stormier winters

  • Increased flood risk (river and coastal)

  • Pressure on agriculture

  • Greater strain on the NHS during heatwaves

  • More volatile insurance markets

You’ve already seen glimpses of this.

The question is not whether climate change is happening.

It’s whether we are preparing properly.

Mitigation vs Adaptation

We need both:

1️⃣ Mitigation (Cutting Emissions)

  • Renewable energy

  • Electrification

  • Insulation

  • Heat pumps

  • Battery storage

  • Sustainable transport

  • Regenerative farming

2️⃣ Adaptation (Living with What’s Coming)

  • Flood defences

  • Water storage systems

  • Urban tree planting

  • Passive cooling in buildings

  • Drought-resistant crops

  • Stronger infrastructure standards

As someone with 26 solar panels, battery storage and a heat pump, I’ve already seen how resilience and emissions reduction go hand in hand. The same principle applies at national scale.

The Real Takeaway

Preparing for 3°C is not surrender.

It’s risk management.

Just as sailors plan for rough weather even when the forecast looks fair, governments must prepare for worst-case scenarios while still working hard to avoid them.

The danger isn’t talking about 3°C.

The danger is pretending it can’t happen.

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